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This study examines the contribution of crime rate towards the likelihood of forest fires incidence in Sumatra Island, Indonesia. The authors used the 2018 PODES data (Village Potential Census or Sensus Potensi Desa) collected by the Central Bureau of Statistics for three provinces in Sumatra Islands: South Sumatera, Jambi and Riau. The sample of this study is all villages (6.699 villages) in Riau, Jambi and South Sumatra. This study has ten independent variables: drug, theft, gambling, fraud, rape, violence theft, persecution, murder, corruption and trafficking. The result of logistic regression analysis using STATA 15 show that only drug, theft and rape have significant relationship with Y (forest fires incidence). The final models of logistic regression can be estimated as much as 2 percent significant, X2 (3) = 81.63, p < 0.01. The findings suggest that the lack of collective efficacy in Jambi, Riau and South Sumatra could contribute to forest fires incidence. This study recommends to the Government to revise district regulation on forest fires, accommodate conditional burning for small farmers and increasing collective efficacy at community level. © 2020, World Research Association. All rights reserved.
