El niño and climate prediction applications in South America

Climate prediction at the seasonal-to-interannual time scales has been successful in many areas of the globe, mainly in the Tropics. In particular, El Niño and its teleconnection in precipitation patterns over Australia, Indonesia, Peru, Ecuador, Northeast Brazil, tropical Africa, and in some cases in western Europe have been observed and well documented. In addition, in part due to international research efforts conducted under the overall umbrella of the World Climate Research Program, particularly the successful 10-year long TOGA program (1985-1994), there is a growing number of studies of other climate patterns connected to Atlantic and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies beyond the tropical Pacific alone. Even as the science of climate prediction evolves, current knowledge of short-term climate events such as ENSO can be used to mitigate negative impacts and take advantage of positive ones. Examples in agricultural intervention in Peru (Lagos and Buizer 1991) and Northeast Brazil (Moura 1994) show how decisions can be made to improve production even under environment stress caused by droughts. Studies relating ENSO and corn production in Zimbabwe also reveal tremendous potential for agricultural planning in Africa, allowing for appropriate international actions to be taken to relief potential famine. The impacts over the Peruvian and Chilean fisheries have been extensively studied (Glantz and Feingold 1990). They show a complex physical-biological-societal/economics linkage between a natural phenomenon (El Niño) and the socio-economic activities in these countries, as revealed in the intricate relationship between government, private industries (large and small), artisanal versus large-scale fisheries (Pfaff et al. 1999). Examples in energy applications are also emerging, for example, in the Hydroelectric Power plant of Salto Santiago in the Iguazu River, Brazil, with substantial savings achieved by using the 1996 La Niña, when dry conditions were forecasted over the southern South America region. Appropriate decisions were taken, thus saving over a hundred thousand American dollars in just a simple operation, taken under risky conditions! In this paper we analyze and review existing knowledge concerning climate modeling and prediction on seasonal-to-interannual time scales, particularly the ENSO phenomenon. We discuss the 1997/1998 'El Niño of the century' in terms of its development and devastating impacts, bringing flash flooding in Peru, extensive forest fires in the Amazon and severe droughts in the Brazilian Nordeste. We also discuss applications of climate forecasts in agricultural practices, hydro-electricity generation and infectious disease outbreaks (malaria, dengue, cholera) related to climate in Peru, Brazil, Colombia.